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Posted By: Kevin Nov 25, 2004 - 08:30 pm

Has anyone been watching the news lately? This whole thing on the Ukrainian government's affiliation with the Russian government is really starting to creep me out. It seems like, for the Russain government to risk something like what we've seen, that they have some big plans. There are so many dreadful rumours surrounding the controversy, and even if half are true, it would mean civil war. To think that students in the near future may be studying these events. One the other hand, perhaps nothing will manifest from this, but I think this could turn ugly, especially with the Russian government announcing, only months ago, that they had developed a new, and more powerful, nuclear bomb. All we can do now, is wait to see what happens next.

Posted By: Magus Nov 26, 2004 - 05:17 am

I haven't heard anything about this. I get most of my news from CNN.com, and this site as well. I'll have to look more into it.

Posted By: talisman Nov 26, 2004 - 09:58 am

It seems pretty controlled at the moment. Seems like it will end peacefully. The worst that could happen would be a short, violent overthrow of the current regime, replacing it with the opposition party.

I'm sure Russia wouldn't get involved. Its just not worth it for them.

Posted By: fanuilh Nov 26, 2004 - 10:07 am

There was a presidential election in the Ukraine. The candidate supported by Putin has been declared the winner, however there are charges of fraud. The populace has taken to the streets over it, there were threats of use of force to quell the demonstrations but that was changed later. The latest development is that the news media, controlled by the government, got fed up of being censored and is now showing images of demonstrations. There are news stories about what's going on, and there are also lots of blogger accounts by Ukrainians of what's happening. If the spelling and grammar is bothersome, just remember English isn't their first language.

At Notes From Kiev, "Residents with apartments overlooking the Presidential Administration grounds last night witnessed the burning of documents. It lasted from 9:00pm to 3:00am. It also has been suggested the Russian troops at the Presidential Administration are there to destory documents that Russia/Kuchma might wish to keep away from public view. Apparently this was done in Iraq and Geogria before their fall." There are more updates at the link.

Le Sabot Post-Moderne has an explanation of how and why the election was stolen. It's an interesting look at Ukrainian politics. There are also photos.

Interesting webcams in Kiev at Kiev-Maidan and Solomyanska Square (this one's streaming video, so be patient). There's another at Kiev Southern Railway Station but it said I had to get the plug-in, so I didn't look at it.

News reports:

Ukraine Court bars election results publication.

Ukraine Opposition Surrounds Buildings.

Ukraine Premier Warns of 'Coup'

What it seems to boil down to is that Russia is losing its grip on the Ukraine and doesn't like it.

Posted By: Magus Nov 26, 2004 - 12:16 pm

That seems to be the case.

Posted By: ProfCrash Nov 27, 2004 - 08:43 am

The legislature overturned the results of the election this morning.

It should be no surprise that there is a strong connection to Russia. After all, Russia controlled the Ukraine for a long time. Putin was a member of the Communist Party and head of the KGB. Lets just say that I do not consider either trait a reliable measure of someones committment to democracy.

In Political Science, a country is not considered a full fledged democracy until there has been two elections where candidates from different political parties and there is a peaceful transition. So far Russia has had 1 party represented in the Presidency. Yeltsin and Putin both have read the history of Mexico apparently because they change the election rules and use the government controlled media to promote their candidacies. As such, both have been able to maintain their position.

The PRI regularly amended the constitution to change the election rules to favor the PRI. The first time the PRI did not muck with the constitution prior to an election, Vincente (sp) Fox was elected. Wonder what would happen in Russia if there were truely fair elections? Ones were independent media were not closed down and pressured?

Needless to say, struggles in the Former Soviet Republics are to be expected. There has not been strong economic development, which normally preceeds democracy (only exception is India). There is not a good education system. Top that off with the fact that most of the political leaders are former communists and you have a recipe for a long transition period.

So, trouble with the Ukraining elections are no real surprise to anyone. The good news is that the protests were peaceful and the legislature has stepped in to correct the situation. This is an indication that the roots of democracy have taken hold, at least with the populace. Now we wait and see how the Powers That Be respond.

Posted By: Magus Nov 28, 2004 - 10:46 am

Yeah, there is at least that.

Posted By: fanuilh Nov 29, 2004 - 06:33 am

November 29th, according to a blogger who lives in Kiev:

There is a blockade of protesters at the Cabinet of Ministers building, which is considered the likely location for a military/police crackdown. The protesters have been given 24 hours to clear the place. There is a rumor that special forces are being brought in to take care of things, should the protesters refuse to leave.

The protesters currently occupy most of the Kiev City Council building, which was "donated" to them by the pro-Opposition mayor.

I quote the following in full, as it's interesting:

"Yulia Tymoschenko, second figure in the Opposition and Ukraine's answer to Margaret Thatcher, delivered an ultimatum from Yushchenko and the National Salvation Committee tonight. It makes four demands upon President Kuchma, and the Opposition plans to blockade his summer residence if he doesn't act in 24 hours. It also threatens to hold him liable for criminal charges under the code of Ukraine.

"The 4 Points:

"1. Fire Yanukovych from Prime Minister, because of his election falsifications and his support of separatist groups.

"2. New candidates for the Central Election Commission.

"3. Fire the administrators of the Lugansk, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions because of their separatist actions.

"4. To give urgent instruction to General Persecutor and Ukraine Security Council to open criminal case against separatists-dissenters of Ukraine.

"Chances are pretty slim that any of these will happen. But it's further sign of the escalation taking place on both sides. Tymoschenko's statement that 'there are sufficient faithful people among the military forces' to open a criminal case is especially noteworthy, IMO."

The Ukrainian Supreme Court's decision to hear arguments on the election results doesn't mean much. They cannot rule on the final results, only declare results in individual precincts invalid.

Posted By: fanuilh Nov 29, 2004 - 06:24 pm

Some photos of the protests are available here, if you're interested. There are also links to other sites covering the protests and other events.

Posted By: Magus Nov 29, 2004 - 06:38 pm

I've been hearing more and more of this on the news. I wonder if the situation is escalating? But, then again, wouldn't it? I meen, doesn't it always get worse before it gets better?

Posted By: fanuilh Nov 29, 2004 - 06:49 pm

At Maidan News:

"Blood is Flowing in Luhansk (Details of Today's Events)

"In view of the conference that took place in Severodonetsk and increasing anti-Yushchenko hysteria on the streets of Luhansks, the Yushchenko regional headquarters decided to cancel the previously scheduled rally. Information was coming in about provocations being prepared. Nevertheless, several workers from the headquarters traveled to the central square in order to warn people who might have come to the rally unaware of its cancellation. There indeed were such people. In addition to them, representatives of the socialists arrived to the same location.

"Barely 5 minutes had passed when a huge crowd with banners and signs reading 'For Yanukovych' came out onto the square. Around 60 thugs with bats and brass-knuckles ran out from their ranks and without further ado began to pummel the attendees. Result of the slaughter: broken arms, fractured skulls, smashed noses.

"The police posted nearby DID NOT REACT IN ANY WAY to what was happening. This, however, hardly comes as a suprise. According to our information, police officers have an order NOT TO NOTICE attacks of thugs on people in orange. In addition, there were eyewitnesses to personal participation of employees of the city police department in the assault.

"Right now, today, to wear orange in Luhansk means facing a mortal danger. That is not an exaggeration. Currently, workers in the Yushchenko headquarters are preparing to repel a possible attack. It is apparently in the making. The workers will have to repel it on their own. There is no more police and no more law in Luhansk."

Posted By: fanuilh Nov 29, 2004 - 06:54 pm

There was a story that outgoing President Kuchma supported the idea of new elections. However, at SCSU Scholars:

"My Ukrainian student is listening to news reports and says this is not a real offer, that Kuchma is not only offering to redo the second round but the first as well. This could take 180 days. This is exactly the scenario I thought may happen -- Kuchma doesn't want Yanukovych as much as he wants himself to be president. If he can buy six months, he has found his ideal solution.

"My student also reports Yushchenko has refused this offer and is holding out for the Supreme Court decision.

"The parliament is scheduled to meet tomorrow, whereupon it is expected Yushchenko's party will seek the ouster of Yanukovych along with his interior minister and prosecutor-general."

Posted By: fanuilh Dec 01, 2004 - 08:03 am

Latest in the Ukraine:

Parliament Sacks Ukraine Government, by Moscow correspondent Emma Griffiths and wires. © 2004 Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

"Ukraine's Parliament has voted to sack the Government of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich to help end a 10-day political crisis sparked by allegations of fraud in the presidential ballot.

"In a secret ballot, the 450-member Parliament has passed the dismissal with just three more votes than the minimum required.

"The deputies have also voted to create an interim 'government of national trust'.

"The Parliament gave itself the right to sack the Government by annulling its earlier approval of the Yanukovich administration's program.

"'This is a victory not only for the Opposition, but for the entire Ukrainian people,' Opposition deputy Roman Zvarych said.

"Outgoing President Leonid Kuchma now must sign the dismissal order for it to take effect.

"However, supporters insist that Parliament could not reverse the approval of the government program, making the dismissal unconstitutional.

"Opposition supporters outside the Parliament are celebrating the decision.

"Mr Yanukovich's presidential poll rival, Viktor Yuschchenko has submitted an appeal against the ballot's result to the Supreme Court.

"It is now considering for the third straight day his proposal to declare the election invalid and hold a new vote."

According to SCSU Scholars, however, that while the parliament does have the authority to "sack" the Prime Minister, once it accepts the PM's program it is required to give him a year to carry out that program. What they did, apparently, was to vote to rescind their approval of the program and then voted to fire him. Some see it as a questionable constitutional dodge which Kuchma is unlikely to approve. Yanukovych, meanwhile, has "taken ill," which is in Soviet-speak "shut up and let the big boys negotiate." And there are indications that the use of force are imminent.

I found a site that says Russian special troops ( Spetsnaz, and if you know anything about these guys, you know they're a serious threat) have been in the Ukraine since Nov 23rd. This isn't the first time I've found some commentary about Spetsnaz being deployed there. And it's completely in line with Russian (formerly Soviet) tactics. Putin was KGB, remember. He still is, even if he's not "officially" connected to the agency.

Protesters have blocked police movements attempting to threaten protesters.

And there's optimism at Le Sabot Post-Moderne. "The Parliament has voted out Yanukovych. Theoretically, Kuchma could keep him in power for up to two more months before appointing a new one. But he's damaged goods, so it's hardly likely."

At Ben in Ukraine, this: "And, just off the wire, there’s an unconfirmed report of 12,000 to 20,000 troops being mobilized to Kiev from surrounding regions. Let’s hope that’s a false report. Stay tuned."

Posted By: fanuilh Dec 01, 2004 - 10:45 am

Aha. I found this earlier, then couldn't find it again, but here it is. Link and photographs are here. Some of the photos are a tad, um, unpleasant to look at. There are also photos of demonstrations.

"The Prime Minister of the Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, poisoned his opponent for President, Viktor Yushchenko - and then rigged the election itself - as exposed in just-released telephone transcripts."

"On September 6, 2004, Ukrainian Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych, attempted to take the life of his opponent for President of the Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko. Yanukovych's agents used a chemical or biological agent (ricin has been suggested), as is evidenced by a comparison of the before and after photographs (see above and below).

"Following the non-stop vomiting of the initial poisoning, Yushchenko's face was partly paralyzed, his eyes teared, he salivated excessively, and he had trouble speaking and reading. His campaign was first suspended, and as he began to recover, was less effective than it would otherwise have been. Yet he continues today to fight against Yanukovych's scheme to rig the election - recently exposed in transcripts of four telephone conversations, as reported below."

More at the link. Still more at Wikipedia.

Posted By: fanuilh Dec 01, 2004 - 02:35 pm

The second round of negotiations has finished. It looks hopeful.

Posted By: fanuilh Dec 27, 2004 - 04:38 pm

The presidential election in the Ukraine is over, and Yushchenko won. AP article, Copyright © 2004 ABC News Internet Ventures.

"'We have been independent for 14 years but we were not free,' Yushchenko told the festive crowd in Kiev's central Independence Square, the center of weeks of protests after the fraudulent and now-annulled Nov. 21 ballot in which Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych had been declared the winner.

"'Now we can say this is a thing of the past. Now we are facing an independent and free Ukraine.'"

The revolution continues.

Posted By: fanuilh Dec 28, 2004 - 02:21 pm

Things that make you go, "Hmmmm...."

Vote-rigging 'mastermind' is found shot dead at home , by Chris Steven in Kiev, ©2004 Scotsman.com.

"A Ukrainian minister accused of being behind the plan to move tens of thousands of government supporters around the country to engage in illegal multiple voting in November's annulled presidential election, was found shot dead last night.

"The body of Heorhiy Kirpa, the minister of transport, was found in his country house just outside the Ukrainian capital Kiev, said Eduard Zanyuk, a spokesman for the country’s railways.

"'The man has passed away. An investigation will clear up the circumstances,' he said."

"Speculation in Kiev last night among demonstrators and diplomats was that he may have been assassinated by those fearing he would give investigators details of the extent of November's vote-rigging operation.

"However, local press also said he may have taken his own life."

In Moscow/KGB parlance, this is also known as "cleaning up the evidence."